The Sahel climate makes the eco region particularly vulnerable to changes in water.[5] Climate change is expected to increase or make more severe windstorms, floods, droughts, and coastal erosion and saltwater intrusion.[5][6]
Agriculture is 26% of the GDP and employs 68% of the labor force.[5] Much of the agriculture is rain fed, so changes in precipitation will have significant impacts.[5] In 2012, drought plus increased food prices led to a food crisis in the region.[6] Rice farmers near the coast are also experiencing saltwater intrusion.[6]
Fisheries are also vulnerable, with changes to breeding grounds for coastal fishery species putting additional pressure on already unsustainable fishery practices.[5]
Infrastructure is already seeing major losses from flooding and windstorms. For example, urban floods in 2020 severely damaged at least 2371 houses, and destroyed crops.[5]
Mitigation and adaptation
Policies and legislation
The Gambia has published a Climate Change Priority Action Plan that focuses on 24 cross-sectoral activities.[7]
International cooperation
United Nations Environment Programme started a $20.5 million project in partnership with the Government of Gambia to restore forests and marginal agricultural land.[8]
^Schuur, Edward A.G.; Abbott, Benjamin W.; Commane, Roisin; Ernakovich, Jessica; Euskirchen, Eugenie; Hugelius, Gustaf; Grosse, Guido; Jones, Miriam; Koven, Charlie; Leshyk, Victor; Lawrence, David; Loranty, Michael M.; Mauritz, Marguerite; Olefeldt, David; Natali, Susan; Rodenhizer, Heidi; Salmon, Verity; Schädel, Christina; Strauss, Jens; Treat, Claire; Turetsky, Merritt (2022). "Permafrost and Climate Change: Carbon Cycle Feedbacks From the Warming Arctic". Annual Review of Environment and Resources. 47: 343–371. doi:10.1146/annurev-environ-012220-011847. Medium-range estimates of Arctic carbon emissions could result from moderate climate emission mitigation policies that keep global warming below 3°C (e.g., RCP4.5). This global warming level most closely matches country emissions reduction pledges made for the Paris Climate Agreement...
^Phiddian, Ellen (5 April 2022). "Explainer: IPCC Scenarios". Cosmos. Archived from the original on 20 September 2023. Retrieved 30 September 2023. "The IPCC doesn't make projections about which of these scenarios is more likely, but other researchers and modellers can. The Australian Academy of Science, for instance, released a report last year stating that our current emissions trajectory had us headed for a 3°C warmer world, roughly in line with the middle scenario. Climate Action Tracker predicts 2.5 to 2.9°C of warming based on current policies and action, with pledges and government agreements taking this to 2.1°C.