2018 Arizona Secretary of State election

2018 Arizona Secretary of State election
Turnout	62.77%
	Hobbs: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90%; Gaynor: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90%; Tie: 50% No data
Secretary of State before election; Michele Reagan; Republican	Elected Secretary of State ; Katie Hobbs; Democratic

The 2018 Arizona Secretary of State election took place in the U.S. state of Arizona on November 6, 2018, to elect the Secretary of State of Arizona, concurrently with the election of Arizona's Class I U.S. Senate seat, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

Incumbent Michele Reagan was first elected in 2014 and ran for re-election. She was defeated in the Republican primary by Steve Gaynor. State senator Katie Hobbs defeated Gaynor in the general election by a small margin, becoming the first Democratic Secretary of State since Richard Mahoney was elected in 1990.

The race was rated "Likely Republican" by Governing.com,^[2] but this did not come to fruition as Katie Hobbs pulled off an upset win which, alongside Democrats' victory in the concurrent Senate election, established Arizona's role as a key battleground state.

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

Steve Gaynor, businessman^[3]^[4]

Eliminated in primary

Michele Reagan, incumbent secretary of state^[5]^[6]

Declined

Steve Montenegro, former state senator and candidate for Arizona's 8th congressional district in 2018^[7]^[8]
Kevin Gibbons, home loan officer

Results

Republican primary results^[9]
Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	Steve Gaynor	414,332	66.69%
	Republican	Michele Reagan (incumbent)	206,988	33.31%
Total votes			621,320	100.0%

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Katie Hobbs, minority leader of the Arizona Senate^[10]^[11]

Not on the ballot

Leslie Pico, businesswoman^[12]^[13]

Withdrew

Mark Robert Gordon, attorney^[14]^[15]^[16]

Results

Democratic primary results^[9]
Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Democratic	Katie Hobbs	465,668	100.0%
Total votes			465,668	100.0%

General election

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
Governing^[17]	Likely R	June 4, 2018

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Steve Gaynor (R)	Katie Hobbs (D)	Other	Undecided
Data Orbital (R)^[18]	October 1–3, 2018	550 (LV)	± 4.2%	41%	31%	3%	24%
OH Predictive Insights^[19]	October 1–2, 2018	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	50%	36%	–	14%
Gravis Marketing^[20]	September 5–7, 2018	882 (LV)	± 3.3%	45%	40%	–	15%
OH Predictive Insights^[21]	September 5–6, 2018	597 (LV)	± 4.0%	42%	39%	–	19%

Results

Arizona Secretary of State election, 2018^[1]
Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Democratic	Katie Hobbs	1,176,384	50.43%	+2.65%
	Republican	Steve Gaynor	1,156,132	49.56%	−2.66%
	Write-in		169	0.01%	N/A
Total votes			2,332,685	100.0%
	Democratic gain from Republican

By county

County^[1]	Katie Hobbs Democratic		Steve Gaynor Republican		Others		Margin		Total
County^[1]	#	%	#	%	#	%	#	%	Total
Apache	17,029	68.33	7,889	31.65	4	0.02	9,140	36.68	24,922
Cochise	18,721	41.66	26,204	58.31	17	0.04	-7,483	-16.65	44,942
Coconino	34,120	63.21	19,851	36.78	8	0.01	14,269	26.43	53,979
Gila	7,524	37.01	12,804	62.98	2	0.01	-5,280	-25.97	20,330
Graham	3,476	32.99	7,061	67.01	0	0.00	-3,585	-34.02	10,537
Greenlee	1,084	43.00	1,437	57.00	0	0.00	-353	-14.00	2,531
La Paz	1,608	32.06	3,408	67.94	0	0.00	-1,800	-35.88	5,016
Maricopa	713,045	50.72	692,690	49.27	85	0.01	20,355	1.45	1,405,735
Mohave	18,775	26.56	51,900	73.43	5	0.01	-33,125	-46.87	70,675
Navajo	16,930	47.06	19,040	52.93	3	0.01	-2,110	-5.87	35,970
Pima	226,034	59.24	155,501	40.75	23	0.01	70,533	18.49	381,535
Pinal	49,756	42.90	66,211	57.09	7	0.01	-16,455	-14.19	115,967
Santa Cruz	9,497	71.81	3,729	28.19	0	0.00	5,768	43.62	13,226
Yavapai	38,259	36.66	66,088	63.33	13	0.01	-27,829	-26.67	104,347
Yuma	20,526	47.91	22,319	52.09	2	0.00	-1,793	-4.18	42,845