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2018 Pennsylvania gubernatorial election

See also: 2018 United States gubernatorial elections

2018 Pennsylvania gubernatorial election
← 2014 November 6, 2018 2022 →
 
Nominee Tom Wolf Scott Wagner
Party Democratic Republican
Running mate John Fetterman Jeff Bartos
Popular vote 2,895,662 2,039,899
Percentage 57.77% 40.70%
Wolf:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Wagner:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Tie:      40–50%      50%      No data
Governor before election

Tom Wolf
Democratic

Elected Governor

Tom Wolf
Democratic

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Government

The 2018 Pennsylvania gubernatorial election took place on November 6, 2018, to elect the Governor and Lieutenant Governor of Pennsylvania, concurrently with the election of Pennsylvania's Class I U.S. Senate seat, as well as elections to the United States House of Representatives and various local elections. Incumbent Governor Tom Wolf won re-election to a second term by a double-digit margin, defeating Republican challenger Scott Wagner and two third-party candidates from the Green Party, Paul Glover and Libertarian Party, Ken Krawchuk.[1][2] The primary elections were held on May 15.[3] This was the only Democratic-held governorship up for election in a state that Donald Trump won in the 2016 presidential election.

Wagner won 8 counties that Wolf won in 2014: Lawrence, Greene, Fayette, Cambria, Clinton, Northumberland, Carbon, and Schuylkill. Meanwhile, this was the first time since Bob Casey Jr.'s landslide State Treasurer win in 2004 that Cumberland County voted for the Democrat in a statewide election.

Democratic primary

Governor

Candidate

Nominated
Results
Democratic primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Tom Wolf (incumbent) 741,676 100.0
Total votes 741,676 100.0

Lieutenant governor

Incumbent Lieutenant Governor Mike Stack faced several controversies during his term, including mistreatment of state police officers assigned as his security detail.[4] As a result, he faced several challengers in the primary, including 2016 Senate candidate John Fetterman. Stack was ultimately defeated by Fetterman, placing fourth overall.

Candidates

Nominated

Eliminated in the primary

Withdrawn
Declined

Endorsements

Kathi Cozzone

State legislators

Madeleine Dean (withdrawn)
Federal officials

State legislators

John Fetterman
Federal officials

State officials

State legislators

Municipal officials

Labor unions

Organizations

Individuals

Newspapers

Mike Stack
Federal officials

State legislators

Municipal officials

Declined to endorse

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Aryanna
Berringer 		Kathi
Cozzone 		Madeleine
Dean 		John
Fetterman 		Craig
Lehman 		Mike
Stack 		Undecided
Independence Communications & Campaigns, LLC[27] February 2–4, 2018 467 ± 4.53% 2% 10% 4% 20% 1% 8% 55%

Primary results

Results by county:
  Fetterman—70–80%
  Fetterman—60–70%
  Fetterman—50–60%
  Fetterman—40–50%
  Fetterman—<40%
  Ahmad—40–50%
  Ahmad—<40%
  Cozzone—60–70%
  Cozzone—<40%
  Stack—<40%
Democratic primary
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic John Fetterman 288,229 38.0
Democratic Nina Ahmad 182,309 23.8
Democratic Kathi Cozzone 142,410 18.6
Democratic Mike Stack (incumbent) 127,259 16.6
Democratic Ray Sosa 27,427 3.6
Total votes 767,634 100.0

Republican primary

Governor

Candidates

Nominated

Eliminated in the primary

Withdrawn
Declined

Endorsements

Laura Ellsworth

Municipal officials

Individuals

Newspapers

Paul Mango

U.S. Senators

Organizations

Scott Wagner

Federal officials

Governors

U.S. Representatives

State senators

State representatives

Individuals

Organizations

Mike Turzai (withdrawn)
State senators

State representatives

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Laura
Ellsworth 		Paul
Mango 		Scott
Wagner 		Other Undecided
Susquehanna Polling & Research[60] May 4–8, 2018 545 ± 4.2% 18% 23% 37% 1% 22%
ColdSpark Media (R-Ellsworth)[61] May 2018 – – 17% 24% 28% – 30%
McLaughlin & Associates (R-Wagner)[62] April 2–3, 2018 500 ± 4.5% 9% 24% 50% – 17%
Revily (R-American Principles Project)[63] March 13–15, 2018 800 ± 3.4% 4% 18% 20% – 57%
McLaughlin & Associates (R-Wagner)[64] September 18–20, 2017 400 ± 4.9% – 16% 45% – 39%
5% 13% 45% – 37%
Hypothetical polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Scott
Wagner 		Paul
Mango 		Mike
Turzai 		Undecided
McLaughlin & Associates (R-Wagner)[65] April 9–10, 2017 500 ± 4.5% 38% 8% 10% 45%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Scott
Wagner 		Paul
Mango 		Undecided
McLaughlin & Associates (R-Wagner)[66] September 18–20, 2017 400 ± 4.9% 45% 16% 39%
McLaughlin & Associates (R-Wagner)[65] April 9–10, 2017 500 ± 4.5% 42% 13% 46%

Results

Results by county:
  Wagner—60–70%
  Wagner—50–60%
  Wagner—40–50%
  Mango—40–50%
  Mango—50–60%
Republican primary
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Scott Wagner 324,013 44.3
Republican Paul Mango 270,014 36.9
Republican Laura Ellsworth 137,650 18.8
Total votes 731,677 100.0

Lieutenant governor

Candidates

Nominated
  • Jeff Bartos, businessman (running with Scott Wagner)[67]

Eliminated in the primary

  • Kathy Coder, political activist[68]
  • Peg Luksik, political activist[69]
  • Diana Irey Vaughan, Washington County commissioner (running with Paul Mango)[70]
Removed from the ballot
Withdrawn
Considered potential
Declined

Endorsements

Jeff Bartos

Results

Results by county:
  Bartos—60–70%
  Bartos—50–60%
  Bartos—40–50%
  Bartos—<40%
  Coder—40–50%
  Coder—<40%
  Vaughan—70–80%
  Vaughan—50–60%
  Vaughan—40–50%
  Luksik—50–60%
  Luksik—<40%
Republican primary
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Jeff Bartos 317,619 46.8
Republican Kathy Coder 147,805 21.8
Republican Diana Irey Vaughan 119,400 17.6
Republican Peg Luksik 93,667 13.8
Total votes 678,491 100.0

Green Party

Governor

Candidates

Nominated

Lieutenant governor

Candidates

Nominated
  • Jocolyn Bowser-Bostick

Endorsements

Paul Glover

Libertarian Party

Governor

Candidates

Nominated
  • Ken Krawchuk, technology consultant and nominee for governor in 1998, 2002, and 2014[84]

Lieutenant governor

Candidates

Nominated

  • Kathleen Smith, entrepreneur (running with Ken Krawchuk)

General election

Candidates

Debates

Endorsements

Scott Wagner (R)

Federal officials

Governors

U.S. Representatives

State senators

State representatives

County Commissioners

Individuals

Organizations

Tom Wolf (D)
Federal officials

Governors

U.S. Representatives

State representatives

Individuals

Organizations

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[107] Likely D October 26, 2018
The Washington Post[108] Likely D November 5, 2018
FiveThirtyEight[109] Safe D November 5, 2018
Rothenberg Political Report[110] Likely D November 1, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball[111] Safe D November 5, 2018
RealClearPolitics[112] Safe D November 4, 2018
Daily Kos[113] Safe D November 5, 2018
Fox News[114][a] Likely D November 5, 2018
Politico[115] Likely D November 5, 2018
Governing[116] Likely D November 5, 2018
Notes
  1. ^ The Fox News Midterm Power Rankings uniquely does not contain a category for Safe/Solid races

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Tom
Wolf (D) 		Scott
Wagner (R) 		Other Undecided
Change Research[117] November 2–4, 2018 1,833 – 53% 42% 3%[118] –
Research Co.[119] November 1–3, 2018 450 ± 4.6% 54% 39% 1% 6%
Muhlenberg College[120] October 28 – November 1, 2018 421 ± 5.5% 58% 37% – –
Franklin & Marshall College[121] October 22–28, 2018 214 LV ± 9.5% 59% 33% – 5%
537 RV ± 6.0% 57% 27% 6%[122] 10%
Morning Consult[123] October 1–2, 2018 1,188 ± 3.0% 48% 36% – 16%
Franklin & Marshall College[124] September 17–23, 2018 204 LV – 52% 30% – 17%
545 RV ± 6.1% 52% 28% 2%[125] 18%
Ipsos[126] September 12–20, 2018 1,080 ± 3.0% 55% 38% 2% 6%
Muhlenberg College[127] September 13–19, 2018 404 ± 5.5% 55% 36% 6%[128] 2%
Rasmussen Reports[129] September 12–13, 2018 800 ± 3.5% 52% 40% 3% 5%
Franklin & Marshall College[130] August 20–26, 2018 222 LV – 52% 35% 1% 12%
511 RV ± 6.1% 51% 32% 5%[131] 14%
Marist College[132] August 12–16, 2018 713 ± 4.2% 54% 40% <1% 6%
Commonwealth Leaders Fund (R)[133] August 13–15, 2018 2,012 ± 3.6% 46% 43% 3% 8%
Suffolk University[134] June 21–25, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 49% 36% 1% 14%
Franklin & Marshall College[135] June 4–10, 2018 472 ± 6.5% 48% 29% 1% 23%
Muhlenberg College[136] April 4–12, 2018 414 ± 5.5% 47% 31% 5% 16%
Franklin & Marshall College[137] March 19–26, 2018 137 ± 6.8% 38% 21% 6% 35%
Hypothetical polling

with Paul Mango

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Tom
Wolf (D) 		Paul
Mango (R) 		Other Undecided
Muhlenberg College[136] April 4–12, 2018 414 ± 5.5% 47% 27% 5% 22%
Franklin & Marshall College[137] March 19–26, 2018 143 ± 6.8% 49% 22% 4% 25%

with Laura Ellsworth

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Tom
Wolf (D) 		Laura
Ellsworth (R) 		Other Undecided
Muhlenberg College[136] April 4–12, 2018 414 ± 5.5% 46% 26% 4% 24%
Franklin & Marshall College[137] March 19–26, 2018 143 ± 6.8% 51% 22% 2% 25%

Results

The election was not close, with Wolf defeating Wagner by about 17 percentage points. Wolf won by running up large margins in Allegheny County, including Pittsburgh, and Philadelphia County, including Philadelphia. Wolf's victory can also be attributed to his strong performance in Philadelphia suburbs.

2018 Pennsylvania gubernatorial election[138]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic Tom Wolf (incumbent)
John Fetterman 		2,895,652 57.77% +2.84%
Republican Scott Wagner
Jeff Bartos 		2,039,882 40.70% −4.37%
Libertarian Ken Krawchuk
Kathleen Smith 		49,229 0.98% N/A
Green Paul Glover
Jocolyn Bowser-Bostick 		27,792 0.55% N/A
Total votes 5,012,555 100.00% N/A
Democratic hold

Results by county

County[139] Tom Wolf
Democratic 		Scott Wagner
Republican 		Ken Krawchuk
Libertarian 		Paul Glover
Green 		Margin Total votes cast
# % # % # % # % # %
Adams 15,862 40.62% 22,501 57.62% 435 1.11% 255 0.65% -6,639 -17.00% 39,053
Allegheny 364,710 67.38% 168,893 31.20% 5,244 0.97% 2,458 0.45% 195,817 36.18% 541,305
Armstrong 8,839 35.87% 15,373 62.38% 278 1.13% 153 0.62% -6,534 -26.51% 24,643
Beaver 36,166 53.28% 30,593 45.07% 711 1.05% 406 0.60% 5,573 8.21% 67,876
Bedford 4,408 23.37% 14,261 75.60% 110 0.58% 84 0.45% -9,853 -52.23% 18,863
Berks 76,136 52.72% 65,756 45.53% 1,619 1.12% 915 0.63% 10,380 7.19% 144,426
Blair 14,622 33.60% 28,175 64.74% 508 1.17% 217 0.50% -13,553 -31.14% 43,522
Bradford 6,852 33.56% 13,068 64.00% 319 1.56% 181 0.89% -6,216 -30.44% 20,420
Bucks 172,302 58.54% 117,912 40.06% 2,602 0.88% 1,513 0.51% 54,390 18.48% 294,329
Butler 32,891 41.26% 45,242 56.76% 1,088 1.36% 490 0.61% -12,351 -15.50% 79,711
Cambria 21,639 43.37% 27,530 55.18% 413 0.83% 312 0.63% -5,891 -11.81% 49,894
Cameron 619 34.91% 1,127 63.56% 17 0.96% 10 0.56% -508 -28.65% 1,773
Carbon 9,659 42.85% 12,476 55.35% 267 1.18% 140 0.62% -2,817 -12.50% 22,542
Centre 34,961 57.62% 24,353 40.13% 849 1.40% 515 0.85% 10,608 17.49% 60,678
Chester 145,212 61.33% 87,873 37.11% 2,448 1.03% 1,242 0.52% 57,339 24.22% 236,775
Clarion 5,191 36.83% 8,594 60.98% 195 1.38% 114 0.81% -3,403 -24.15% 14,094
Clearfield 9,235 34.34% 17,241 64.11% 251 0.93% 165 0.61% -8,006 -29.77% 26,892
Clinton 5,517 44.22% 6,727 53.92% 165 1.32% 67 0.54% -1,210 -9.70% 12,476
Columbia 9,822 43.39% 12,424 54.88% 244 1.08% 148 0.65% -2,602 -11.49% 22,638
Crawford 12,137 39.74% 17,859 58.47% 342 1.12% 206 0.67% -5,722 -18.73% 30,544
Cumberland 52,807 50.54% 49,496 47.37% 1,504 1.44% 671 0.64% 3,311 3.17% 104,478
Dauphin 64,045 59.00% 42,436 39.09% 1,362 1.25% 706 0.65% 21,609 19.91% 108,549
Delaware 167,211 66.71% 80,576 32.15% 1,780 0.71% 1,076 0.43% 86,635 34.56% 250,643
Elk 4,206 37.22% 6,918 61.22% 101 0.89% 76 0.67% -2,712 -24.00% 11,301
Erie 60,790 59.77% 39,387 38.72% 929 0.91% 605 0.59% 21,403 21.05% 101,711
Fayette 19,791 48.38% 20,471 50.04% 384 0.94% 263 0.64% -680 -1.66% 40,909
Forest 746 38.49% 1,159 59.80% 19 0.98% 14 0.72% -413 -21.31% 1,938
Franklin 18,447 33.59% 35,634 64.88% 525 0.96% 316 0.58% -17,187 -31.29% 54,922
Fulton 1,037 19.58% 4,202 79.34% 39 0.74% 18 0.34% -3,165 -59.76% 5,296
Greene 5,844 46.95% 6,381 51.26% 115 0.92% 108 0.87% -537 -4.31% 12,448
Huntingdon 5,037 31.68% 10,586 66.57% 177 1.11% 101 0.64% -5,549 -34.89% 15,901
Indiana 12,715 43.25% 16,179 55.04% 289 0.98% 213 0.72% -3,464 -11.79% 29,396
Jefferson 4,277 27.46% 11,036 70.86% 173 1.11% 88 0.57% -6,759 -43.40% 15,574
Juniata 2,550 30.02% 5,780 68.06% 101 1.19% 62 0.73% -3,230 -38.04% 8,493
Lackawanna 54,237 64.63% 28,616 34.10% 624 0.74% 436 0.52% 25,621 30.53% 83,913
Lancaster 96,040 47.49% 102,229 50.55% 2,837 1.40% 1,118 0.55% -6,189 -3.06% 202,224
Lawrence 15,035 46.63% 16,714 51.84% 291 0.90% 201 0.62% -1,679 -5.21% 32,241
Lebanon 20,159 41.05% 28,096 57.21% 598 1.22% 255 0.52% -7,937 -16.16% 49,108
Lehigh 77,248 60.07% 49,071 38.16% 1,485 1.15% 802 0.62% 28,177 21.91% 128,606
Luzerne 55,734 51.69% 50,701 47.02% 826 0.77% 562 0.52% 5,033 4.67% 107,823
Lycoming 14,727 35.90% 25,570 62.33% 453 1.10% 275 0.67% -10,843 -26.43% 41,025
McKean 3,899 30.96% 8,512 67.59% 104 0.83% 78 0.62% -4,613 -36.63% 12,593
Mercer 18,200 44.28% 22,211 54.04% 413 1.00% 276 0.67% -4,011 -9.76% 41,100
Mifflin 4,127 30.03% 9,408 68.45% 130 0.95% 80 0.58% -5,281 -38.42% 13,745
Monroe 32,064 57.84% 22,530 40.64% 481 0.87% 362 0.65% 9,534 17.20% 55,437
Montgomery 256,252 67.18% 120,206 31.51% 3,260 0.85% 1,728 0.45% 136,046 35.67% 381,446
Montour 3,228 46.02% 3,642 51.92% 97 1.38% 48 0.68% -414 -5.90% 7,015
Northampton 65,749 57.11% 47,527 41.28% 1,211 1.05% 635 0.55% 18,222 15.83% 115,122
Northumberland 12,135 42.10% 16,122 55.94% 360 1.25% 204 0.71% -3,987 -13.84% 28,821
Perry 5,905 34.34% 10,915 63.47% 262 1.52% 144 0.66% -5,010 -29.13% 17,196
Philadelphia 484,124 87.36% 64,514 11.64% 2,593 0.47% 2,944 0.53% 419,160 76.28% 554,175
Pike 9,074 43.63% 11,408 54.85% 184 0.88% 134 0.64% -2,334 -11.22% 20,800
Potter 1,452 23.24% 4,687 75.02% 67 1.07% 42 0.67% -3,235 -51.78% 6,248
Schuylkill 21,179 43.47% 26,640 54.68% 570 1.17% 329 0.68% -5,461 -11.21% 48,718
Snyder 4,833 36.25% 8,283 62.13% 149 1.12% 67 0.50% -3,450 -25.88% 13,332
Somerset 9,138 31.81% 19,020 66.21% 366 1.27% 204 0.71% -9,882 -34.40% 28,728
Sullivan 977 36.20% 1,661 61.54% 50 1.85% 11 0.41% -684 -25.34% 2,699
Susquehanna 5,273 33.55% 10,137 64.49% 177 1.13% 132 0.84% -4,864 -30.94% 15,719
Tioga 3,991 27.01% 10,472 70.86% 179 1.21% 136 0.92% -6,481 -43.85% 14,778
Union 6,426 44.64% 7,676 53.32% 201 1.40% 93 0.65% -1,250 -8.68% 14,396
Venango 7,431 39.90% 10,856 58.29% 242 1.30% 96 0.52% -3,425 -18.39% 18,625
Warren 5,447 37.61% 8,766 60.53% 162 1.12% 108 0.75% -3,319 -22.92% 14,483
Washington 39,898 48.41% 40,662 49.34% 1,282 1.56% 576 0.70% -764 -0.93% 82,418
Wayne 8,023 39.94% 11,751 58.50% 178 0.89% 134 0.67% -3,728 -18.56% 20,086
Westmoreland 67,950 46.45% 76,126 52.04% 1,529 1.05% 690 0.47% -8,176 -5.59% 146,295
Wyoming 4,101 38.51% 6,344 59.57% 100 0.94% 104 0.98% -2,243 -21.06% 10,649
York 75,313 44.57% 90,590 53.61% 2,165 1.28% 910 0.54% -15,277 -9.04% 168,978
Totals 2,895,652 57.77% 2,039,882 40.70% 49,229 0.98% 27,792 0.55% 855,770 17.07% 5,012,555

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

Wolf won 12 of 18 congressional districts, including three that elected Republicans.[140]

District Wolf Wagner Representative
1st 59% 40% Brian Fitzpatrick
2nd 79% 20% Brendan Boyle
3rd 93% 6% Dwight Evans
4th 66% 32% Madeleine Dean
5th 69% 29% Mary Gay Scanlon
6th 61% 37% Chrissy Houlahan
7th 59% 39% Susan Wild
8th 56% 43% Matt Cartwright
9th 44% 54% Dan Meuser
10th 54% 44% Scott Perry
11th 45% 53% Lloyd Smucker
12th 39% 59% Tom Marino
13th 35% 63% John Joyce
14th 48% 51% Guy Reschenthaler
15th 38% 60% Glenn Thompson
16th 50% 49% Mike Kelly
17th 59% 39% Conor Lamb
18th 72% 26% Mike Doyle

See also

References

  1. ^ a b c "Pa-Gov: Wolf: 'I am running for re-election in 2018'". PoliticsPA. March 7, 2017. Retrieved June 15, 2017.
  2. ^ "Tom Wolf Is the Projected Winner of a Second Term as Pennsylvania Governor, Defeating Republican Challenger Scott Wagner". WCAU. November 6, 2018. Retrieved November 7, 2018.
  3. ^ "State Primary Election Dates". National Conference of State Legislatures. January 10, 2018. Retrieved November 7, 2018.
  4. ^ Straub, Mike (April 12, 2017). "Lt. Gov. Mike Stack apologizes for how he and wife treated state troopers on security detail". WGAL 8. Retrieved November 2, 2024.
  5. ^ a b c Potter, Chris (November 14, 2017). "Braddock Mayor John Fetterman, cargo shorts and all, is aiming for the suit-and-tie job of Lt. Gov". Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. Retrieved November 14, 2017.
  6. ^ Seidman, Andrew (February 26, 2018). "Former Mayor Kenney aide Nina Ahmad to run for lieutenant governor". The Philadelphia Inquirer. Retrieved February 26, 2018.
  7. ^ Rettew, Bill Jr. (August 22, 2017). "Commissioner Kathi Cozzone officially announces run for lieutenant governor". Daily Local News. Retrieved August 30, 2017.
  8. ^ Venteicher, Wes. "Lieutenant governor candidates split on whether Gov. Wolf should release Stack report". TribLIVE.com. Retrieved May 22, 2018.
  9. ^ Seidman, Andrew; Couloumbis, Angela (November 21, 2017). "Lt. Gov. Mike Stack, dogged by controversy, announces reelection bid". The Philadelphia Inquirer. Retrieved December 1, 2017.
  10. ^ Murphy, Jan (June 14, 2017). "Lt. Gov. Stack's treatment of staff inspires re-election challenge". PennLive.com. Retrieved August 30, 2017.
  11. ^ Fitzgerald, Thomas (March 22, 2018). "Aryanna Berringer quits Pa. race for LG, blasts rivals, money in politics". The Philadelphia Inquirer.
  12. ^ a b c d e f g h Englekemier, Paul (November 29, 2017). "Dean Enters Race for Lieutenant Governor". PoliticsPA. Retrieved December 1, 2017.
  13. ^ Englekemier, Paul (February 22, 2018). "Dean Ends LG Bid, Enters Race for PA-4". PoliticsPA. Retrieved March 8, 2018.
  14. ^ Janesch, Sam (November 22, 2017). "Lancaster County Commissioner Craig Lehman will run for lieutenant governor, wants to be part of 'positive change'". LancasterOnline. Retrieved December 1, 2017.
  15. ^ a b "Cozzone earns more endorsements in bid to become Pa. Lt. Gov". Delaware County Daily Times. November 10, 2017. Retrieved November 13, 2017.
  16. ^ Moselle, Aaron (May 4, 2018). "Fetterman supporters 'feel the Bern' during Philly endorsement rally". WHYY. Retrieved April 2, 2021.
  17. ^ Venteicher, Wes (December 4, 2017). "Rendell endorses Fetterman for lieutenant governor". Pittsburgh Tribune-Review. Retrieved December 14, 2017.
  18. ^