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2018 Michigan gubernatorial election

See also: 2018 United States gubernatorial elections

2018 Michigan gubernatorial election
← 2014 November 6, 2018 2022 →
Turnout55.4% Increase 13.8[1]
 
Nominee Gretchen Whitmer Bill Schuette
Party Democratic Republican
Running mate Garlin Gilchrist Lisa Posthumus Lyons
Popular vote 2,266,193 1,859,534
Percentage 53.31% 43.75%
Whitmer:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Schuette:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Tie:      40–50%      No data
Governor before election

Rick Snyder
Republican

Elected Governor

Gretchen Whitmer
Democratic

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The 2018 Michigan gubernatorial election took place on November 6, 2018, to elect the next governor of Michigan, concurrently with the election of Michigan's Class I U.S. Senate seat, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states, elections to the United States House of Representatives, and various state and local elections.

Incumbent Republican Governor Rick Snyder and Lieutenant Governor Brian Calley were term-limited and were unable to seek a third term in office.[2] The filing deadline was April 24, 2018. The Republican, Democratic and Libertarian parties chose their nominees in a partisan primary on August 7, 2018.[3] 2018 was the first year the Libertarian Party held a gubernatorial primary alongside the two other major parties in the state of Michigan.[4] The Working Class Party, U.S. Taxpayers Party, Green Party and Natural Law Party chose their nominees at state party conventions.[5]

The race was not as close as expected, with Democrat Gretchen Whitmer was elected with 53.3% of the vote to Republican Bill Schuette's 43.8%.[6] Schuette performed best in more sparsely populated areas, while Whitmer was supported by large margins in large and medium cities, such as Detroit, Ann Arbor, and Lansing. Whitmer also performed well in the Detroit suburbs. Whitmer carried former Republican stronghold Kent County (location of her native Grand Rapids), the first Democratic candidate to do so since James Blanchard's landslide 1986 reelection. Democrats swept the statewide races by also holding onto the Senate seat that was up for re-election, and picking up the positions of secretary of state and attorney general. They also captured every state university trustee seat that was up for election as well as the State Board of Education.[7]

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominated

Eliminated in primary

Declined

Endorsements

Bill Schuette

U.S. Executive Branch Officials

U.S. Governors

U.S. representatives

Local politicians

Individuals

Jim Hines

Organizations

  • Right to Life of Michigan[29]
Patrick Colbeck

U.S. senators

State officials

Individuals

  • David Barton, founder of Wallbuilders[31]
  • Dawn Dodge, Speakers Bureau Director for the Republican Women's Federation of Michigan[32]
  • Bob Dutko, Conservative Christian talk radio host[33]
  • Mark Gurley, co-director of the Michigan Oak Initiative and as the Grassroots vice-chair for the MIGOP[34]
  • Sean Hannity[35]
  • Jack Lousma, former NASA astronaut and retired USMC colonel[36]
  • Bob Lutz, Former General Motors Vice-Chairman and ex-Chrysler President[37]
  • Wes Nakagiri, Michigan Tea Party leader, one of the 17 Republican at-large delegates sent to the 2016 Republican National Convention
  • Thayrone X, Metro Detroit talk radio host[38]

Organizations

  • Michigan Vaccine Freedom PAC[39]
  • Right to Life of Michigan[29]
Brian Calley

U.S. Governors

U.S. representatives

State and local officials

Individuals

Organizations

  • Detroit Regional Chamber of Commerce[47]
  • Grand Rapids Area Chamber of Commerce[48]
  • Home Builders Association of Michigan[49]
  • Michigan Vaccine Freedom PAC[39]
  • Right to Life of Michigan[29]

Newspapers

Debates

Host
network 		Date Link(s) Participants
Bill
Schuette 		Patrick
Colbeck 		Brian
Calley 		Jim
Hines
WOOD-TV May 9, 2018 [52] Invited Invited Invited Invited
WDIV-TV June 28, 2018 Invited Invited Invited Invited

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Brian
Calley 		Patrick
Colbeck 		Jim
Hines 		Bill
Schuette 		Other Undecided
Mitchell Research[53] July 30, 2018 413 ± 5.0% 18% 9% 10% 40% – 23%
EPIC-MRA[54] July 21–22, 2018 1,045 ± 3.1% 24% 11% 8% 42% – 15%
Emerson College[55] July 19–21, 2018 202 ± 7.3% 13% 7% 9% 35% – 36%
Marist College[56] July 15–19, 2018 337 ± 6.3% 26% 11% – 33% 1% 30%
JMC Analytics[57] July 5–12, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 17% 10% 4% 25% – 45%
Target-Insyght[58] June 24–26, 2018 400 ± 5.0% 16% 8% 4% 45% – 21%
NMB Research (R-Better Jobs PAC)[59] June 18–21, 2018 – – 23% – – 45% – 29%
Public Opinion Strategies (R-Schuette)[60] May 22–24, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 19% 6% 1% 42% – –
Public Opinion Strategies (R-Schuette)[61] April 29 – May 1, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 20% 6% 2% 42% – –
Glengariff Group[62] April 19–21, 2018 400 ± 4.9% 23% 4% 1% 36% 0%[63] 34%
Denno Research[64] April 2–3, 2018 500 ± 4.0% 13% 4% 1% 23% – 59%
Strategic National (R)[65] March 19–20, 2018 400 ± 4.9% 18% 7% 3% 27% – 45%
Marketing Resource Group[66] March 13–17, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 13% 2% 2% 29% – 54%
Public Opinion Strategies (R-Schuette)[67] February 10–13, 2018 800 ± 3.4% 15% 5% 2% 42% – –
Strategic National (R)[68] December 16–17, 2017 600 ± 4.0% 19% 5% 2% 30% – 44%
Target-Insyght[69] November 1–6, 2017 400 ± 5.0% 14% <5% <5% 38% – –
Mitchell Research[70] September 21–24, 2017 400 ± 5.0% 13% – – 52% – 36%
Marketing Resource Group[71] September 13–18, 2017 216 ± 4.0% 13% 3% 3% 33% – 48%
Target-Insyght[72] July 25–27, 2017 344 ± 5.4% 14% 4% 1% 42% – 39%
Marketing Resource Group[73] May 8–11, 2017 216 ± 4.0% 11% – 7% 32% – 51%
Hypothetical polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Brian
Calley 		Jim
Hines 		Arlan
Meekhof 		Candice
Miller 		Bill
Schuette 		Undecided
Mitchell Research[74] May 31, 2017 435 ± 4.7% 14% 1% – 21% 18% 46%
Target-Insyght[75] February 2–4, 2016 400 ± 5% 11% – 3% 20% 21% 45%

Results

Results by county
Map legend
  •   Schuette—60–70%
  •   Schuette—50–60%
  •   Schuette—40–50%
  •   Schuette—30–40%
  •   Calley—30–40%
  •   Calley—40–50%
  •   Calley—50–60%
Republican primary results[76]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Bill Schuette 501,959 50.7
Republican Brian Calley 249,185 25.2
Republican Patrick Colbeck 129,646 13.1
Republican Jim Hines 108,735 11.0
Total votes 989,525 100.0

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominated

Eliminated in primary

Write-In

  • Bill C. Cobbs, businessman[80]

Declined

Endorsements

Gretchen Whitmer

U.S. senators

U.S. representatives

State officials

Local officials

Organizations

Newspapers

Abdul El-Sayed

U.S. senators

U.S. representatives

State legislators

Organizations

Newspapers and publications

Political candidates

Individuals

Debates

Host
network 		Date Participants
Abdul
El-Sayed 		Shri
Thanedar 		Gretchen
Whitmer
WOOD-TV June 20, 2018 Invited Invited Invited
WDIV-TV July 19, 2018 Invited Invited Invited

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Bill
Cobbs 		Abdul
El-Sayed 		Shri
Thanedar 		Gretchen
Whitmer 		Other Undecided
EPIC-MRA[127] July 21–22, 2018 1,054 ± 3.1% – 19% 22% 49% – 10%
Change Research (D-El-Sayed)[128] July 20–21, 2018 1,503 – – 27% 15% 33% – 24%
Emerson College[129] July 19–21, 2018 282 ± 6.4% – 12% 17% 39% – 31%
Marist College[56] July 15–19, 2018 442 ± 5.5% – 22% 27% 31% <1% 20%
Target-Insyght[58] June 24–26, 2018 400 ± 5.0% – 17% 19% 40% 2% 22%
Glengariff Group[130] April 20–22, 2018 400 ± 4.9% 3% 7% 30% 26% – 35%
Denno Research[131] April 6–7, 2018 500 ± 4.0% 2% 2% 15% 17% – 63%
Marketing Resource Group[66] March 13–17, 2018 233 ± 6.4% 3% 10% 21% 18% – 48%
Target-Insyght[132] March 6–8, 2018 500 ± 4.5% 4% 6% 20% 34% 3% 33%
EPIC-MRA (D-Thanedar)[133] February 17–22, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 3% 8% 24% 34% – 31%
Target-Insyght[69] November 1–6, 2017 400 ± 5.0% 4% 13% 2% 45% 8% 28%
Marketing Resource Group[71] September 13–18, 2017 255 ± 4.0% 8% 4% 3% 27% – 58%
Hypothetical polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Mike
Duggan 		Abdul
El-Sayed 		Geoffrey
Fieger 		Mark
Hackel 		Dan
Kildee 		Andy
Levin 		Shri
Thanedar 		Gretchen
Whitmer 		Undecided
Target-Insyght[69] November 1–6, 2017 400 ± 5.0% 29% – – – – – – 43% –
– – 28% – – – – 41% –
– – – – – 19% – 42% –
Target-Insyght[75] February 2–4, 2016 400 ± 5% 20% – – 9% 12% – – 16% 43%
Target-Insyght[72] July 25, 2017 377 ± 5.4% – 4% 35% – – – 3% 35% –
Marketing Resource Group[73] May 8–11, 2017 255 ± 4.0% – 9% 26% – – – – 24% 41%

Results

Results by county
Map legend
  •   Whitmer—60–70%
  •   Whitmer—50–60%
  •   Whitmer—40–50%
Democratic primary results[76]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Gretchen Whitmer 588,436 52.0
Democratic Abdul El-Sayed 342,179 30.2
Democratic Shri Thanedar 200,645 17.7
Total votes 1,131,447 100.0

Libertarian primary

The Libertarian Party is one of three parties that have a primary in Michigan.[134]

Candidates

Nominated

Eliminated in primary

Endorsements

John Tatar

Organizations

  • Michigan Vaccine Freedom PAC[39]

Debates

Host
network 		Date Participants
Bill
Gelineau 		John
Tatar
WOOD-TV[136] July 15, 2018 Invited Invited
WJBK-TV[137] July 22, 2018 Invited Invited

Results

Libertarian primary results[76]
Party Candidate Votes %
Libertarian Bill Gelineau 4,034 57.8
Libertarian John Tatar 2,941 42.2
Total votes 6,975 100.0

Green Convention

The Green Party chose candidates for the 2018 ballot at its state convention on May 5, 2018, at the University of Michigan-Flint.[138]

Candidates

Declared and nominated

  • Jennifer Kurland, president of the Redford Union School Board[138]

U.S. Taxpayers Party

Candidates

Declared and nominated

  • Todd Schleiger

Natural Law Party

Candidates

Declared and nominated

General election

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[140] Lean D (flip) October 26, 2018
The Washington Post[141] Lean D (flip) November 5, 2018
FiveThirtyEight[142] Likely D (flip) November 5, 2018
Rothenberg Political Report[143] Lean D (flip) November 1, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball[144] Likely D (flip) November 5, 2018
RealClearPolitics[145] Lean D (flip) November 4, 2018
Daily Kos[146] Likely D (flip) November 5, 2018
Fox News[147][a] Likely D (flip) November 5, 2018
Politico[148] Likely D (flip) November 5, 2018
Governing[149] Lean D (flip) November 5, 2018
Notes
  1. ^ The Fox News Midterm Power Rankings uniquely does not contain a category for Safe/Solid races

Endorsements

Bill Schuette (R)

U.S. Executive Branch Officials

U.S. Governors

U.S. representatives

State Representatives[158]

State Senators[158]

Organizations

Local officials

Individuals

Gretchen Whitmer (D)[174]

U.S. Executive Branch officials

U.S. senators

U.S. representatives

Governors

State officials

Local officials

Labor unions

Organizations

Individuals

Bill Gelineau (L)[200]

Individuals

  • Mary Buzuma, 2014 candidate for governor
  • Greg Creswell, 2006 candidate for governor
  • Kenneth Proctor, 2010 candidate for governor
Todd Schleiger (USTP)[201]

Organizations

  • The Education Watchdogs
  • The Modern Whig Party
  • Protect OutStolen Treasures
Declined to endorse
State officials

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Bill
Schuette (R) 		Gretchen
Whitmer (D) 		Bill
Gelineau (L) 		Other Undecided
Mitchell Research[203] November 5, 2018 827 ± 3.4% 41% 48% – 5% 6%
Mitchell Research[204] November 4, 2018 701 ± 3.7% 40% 54% – 1% 1%
Change Research[205] November 2–4, 2018 880 – 43% 51% 2% 3%[206] –
Research Co.[207] November 1–3, 2018 450 ± 4.6% 43% 47% – 1% 9%
Glengariff Group[208] October 25–27, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 38% 50% 2% 2%[209] 9%
Emerson College[210] October 24–26, 2018 822 ± 3.6% 41% 52% – 3% 4%
Mitchell Research[211] October 25, 2018 400 ± 5.0% 43% 48% – 4% 4%
Target-Insyght[212] October 22–24, 2018 800 ± 3.0% 44% 48% 1% 4%[213] 4%
EPIC-MRA[214] October 18–23, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 41% 46% 3% 3% 7%
Michigan State University[215] October 13–22, 2018 169 – 39% 47% – – –
ALG Research (D)[216][A] October 15–21, 2018 906 ± 3.3% 36% 47% 4% 6%[217] 11%
38% 48% – – 13%
Marketing Resource Group[218] October 14–18, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 36% 50% 2% 4% 7%
ALG Research (D)[219][A] October 8–14, 2018 800 ± 3.5% 36% 46% 3% 2%[220] 13%
Mitchell Research[221] September 30 – October 7, 2018 654 ± 3.8% 38% 46% – 6% 10%
Glengariff Group[222] September 30 – October 2, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 35% 47% – 5% 13%
ALG Research (D)[219][A] September 24–30, 2018 800 ± 3.5% 37% 49% 2% 2%[220] 10%
EPIC-MRA[223] September 21–25, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 37% 45% 2% 5% 11%
Ipsos[224] September 14–24, 2018 1,150 ± 3.0% 39% 52% – 4% 6%
Target-Insyght[225] September 10–14, 2018 800 ± 3.0% 41% 50% – – –
Mitchell Research[226] September 12–13, 2018 1,009 ± 3.0% 38% 48% – 5% 9%
ALG Research (D)[216][A] September 8–13, 2018 798 ± 3.5% 38% 45% 3% 3%[220] 11%
Strategic National (R)[227] September 8–9, 2018 1,000 ± 3.1% 39% 49% – – 12%
Glengariff Group[228] September 5–7, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 36% 50% 2% 4%[229] 10%
Gravis Marketing[230] August 14–16, 2018 647 ± 3.9% 37% 52% – – 11%
Strategic National (R)[231] August 13–14, 2018 700 ± 3.7% 36% 45% – 2% 17%
Emerson College[232] July 19–21, 2018 600 ± 4.3% 36% 43% – 9% 12%
Marist College[56] July 15–19, 2018 886 ± 3.9% 38% 47% – 1% 14%
Target-Insyght[233] June 24–26, 2018 800 ± 3.0% 37% 42% – – 20%
NMB Research (R)[234] June 18–21, 2018 800 ± 3.5% 39% 40% – – 20%
EPIC-MRA[235] April 30 – May 3, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 38% 43% – – 19%
Glengariff Group[236] January 16–19, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 33% 40% – – 25%
Michigan State University[237] September 14, 2017 – January 18, 2018 963 ± 3.2% 35% 41% – – 24%
EPIC-MRA[238] December 9–13, 2017 600 ± 4.0% 38% 35% – – 27%
Target-Insyght[69] November 1–6, 2017 1,000 ± 3.6% 40% 41% – – 19%
EPIC-MRA[239] August 27 – September 1, 2017 600 ± 4.0% 37% 37% – – 26%
Hypothetical polling

with Bill Schuette and Abdul El-Sayed

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Bill
Schuette (R) 		Abdul
El-Sayed (D) 		Other Undecided
Emerson College[240] July 19–21, 2018 600 ± 4.3% 38% 33% 12% 17%
Glengariff Group[236] January 16–19, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 38% 34% – 27%

with Bill Schuette and Shri Thanedar

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Bill
Schuette (R) 		Shri
Thanedar (D) 		Other Undecided
Emerson College[241] July 19–21, 2018 600 ± 4.3% 35% 38% 12% 15%
Target-Insyght[233] June 24–26, 2018 800 ± 3.0% 37% 40% – 22%
NMB Research (R-Better Jobs PAC)[59] June 18–21, 2018 800 ± 3.5% 40% 40% – 19%
EPIC-MRA[235] April 30 – May 3, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 38% 44% – 18%

with Brian Calley and Gretchen Whitmer

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Brian
Calley (R) 		Gretchen
Whitmer (D) 		Other Undecided
Emerson College[242] July 19–21, 2018 600 ± 4.3% 33% 44% 8% 16%
Michigan State University[237] September 14, 2017 – January 18, 2018 963 ± 3.2% 34% 42% – 24%

with Brian Calley and Shri Thanedar

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Brian
Calley (R) 		Shri
Thanedar (D) 		Other Undecided
Emerson College[243] July 19–21, 2018 600 ± 4.3% 38% 36% 12% 14%

with Bill Schuette and Geoffrey Fieger

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Bill
Schuette (R) 		Geoffrey
Fieger (D) 		Undecided
Target-Insyght[69] November 1–6, 2017 1,000 ± 3.6% 42% 35% 23%
EPIC-MRA[239] August 27 – September 1, 2017 600 ± 4% 43% 33% 24%

with Bill Schuette and Mike Duggan

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Bill
Schuette (R) 		Mike
Duggan (D) 		Undecided
Target-Insyght[69] November 1–6, 2017 1,000 ± 3.6% 32% 47% 21%

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of August 27, 2018
Candidate (party) Total receipts Total disbursements Cash on hand
Gretchen Whitmer (D) $7,134,218.66 $5,599,850.57 $1,534,368.09
Bill Schuette (R) $6,175,889.09 $4,741,577.63 $1,434,311.46
Bill Gelineau (L) $54,785.88 $51,267.71 $3,518.17
Source: Michigan Department of State[244]

Debates

Two televised debates between Schuette and Whitmer were scheduled. The first debate was held on Friday, October 12, and hosted by Grand Rapids television station WOOD-TV.[245][246] That debate mainly concentrated on issues and there were no surprises or major errors from either candidate.[247] The second debate was hosted by Detroit television station WDIV and was held on Wednesday, October 24.[248] The two again clashed on various issues,[249] but Schuette made a gaffe when he mixed up Whitmer's name with that of former governor Jennifer Granholm.[250][251]

Campaign

While Whitmer's Democratic primary opponents publicly endorsed Whitmer in the general election,[252] Republican nominee Schuette left the party split after the acrimonious battle with lieutenant governor Calley, with outgoing governor Rick Snyder refusing to endorse Schuette.[202] Schuette also tried to hide his endorsement by Donald Trump from the primary in the general election.[253][254] His actions as attorney general